Monthly Archives: June 2018
I often think about the economic mechanics of international trade – yes, I know that sounds, well, boring. For me, however, economics is one of my mental exercises. I love econ because it involves both math and the uncertain impact of human emotions. Some of the best economists have acknowledged this ever-changing relationship. They use that interaction to create tools to measure markets and human trends – let’s call them the Hari Sheldon’s of the finance world. Case in point. The reason you cannot find a taxi on a rainy night is not because they are all in use – it is because they met their quota early in the evening and went home. The “save for a rainy day” thing doesn’t seem to enter the picture as a motivation.
All that said, trade wars can be more devastating than shooting wars on a number of fronts. For one thing, the effects strike at home, not in some foreign field. Secondly, who are the heroes? The folks who save the interest rate? The folks who save the jobs? How do you gear up factories or build stuff to blow up if the war is in ones and zeros? The effects can also be further reaching. Case in point. When the US economy imploded over the really stupid mortgage market policies, we nearly took the whole world with us. As it happened, we did take down several economies more than a notch or two. The measures put in place to prevent that from happening again have now been reversed.
The point is, I find this interplay – this pool of currencies, products, emotions, and economies, as a fascinating study. I have long been concerned about the amount of treasury debt held by foreign countries. (I’m not the only one). We currently have $6.26 trillion (that’s a T) in Treasury bills, notes and bonds held by foreign countries. The rest of our $21 trillion (yes, t) is owned by either American people or the US government. US government meaning Social Security IOUs and the Fed Reserve, among others. One of the ways the Fed controls the money supply (inflation) is to buy and sell government instruments such as TBills.
Now, China holds about $1.2 trillion with Japan a close second. Would they (the Chinese) sell off a lot of TBills to retaliate in a trade war? Well, they probably would not dump a huge chunk on the market – mostly because that usually does ugly things to prices, even if there is an eager market. One of the reasons they buy so much of our debt is to stabilize their own currency, so they can continue to sell cheap products. But, tariffs change that dynamic. So, maybe a slower, more sedate change in currency bets would be a plan – except that for now a lot of markets are tied to the US dollar (something I’ve never been comfortable with). Sounds cool – being the standard; but if confidence in what we are doing and why goes to pot – well, the “game rules” get rather murky.
That, you see, is the human factor in economics. We can place bets on “confidence” in a trading sector- but we cannot nail the trends without a margin of error that can change with the wind. A few days ago, I posted a note about playing poker with someone who did not “get” the game —
We have worked for decades to develop reliable international markets while doing our best to secure national economic health (meaning the international community). It is not a perfect system, and there does need to be more work. Especially in the areas of human rights. Chinese factory workers do not need to earn what Americans do – their cost of living is quite different. But we do not need to be using child labor at below subsistence levels, nor should people live in squalor, whatever that standard may be in their home country. We need to support our own industries, which usually means purchasing supplies from other countries who can be more efficient or economical about producing them. Case in point. The US solar market lost, by some estimates, 25,000 jobs and a financial loss estimated in billions due to recently imposed tariffs.
Several of our past administrations have had talks with the Chinese about controlling their currency on our backs, but it was an ongoing dance. If they do choose to sell off some of their holdings, that will change our money supply, and it can cause inflation – unless the instruments are bought up quickly. (See above).
So, you see, although international trade and economics can be and intriguing game, the results impact billions of people, some of which live in our country. It takes a deft hand and a strong level of confidence in agreements to keep the engine working well. It’s why you don’t tinker with the confidence thing, or arbitrarily throw away treaties developed with decades of debate – that is only betting wild. Eventually the other players will leave the table. At that point it no longer matters who is holding the winning hand.
I am rather fond of the Facebook page, Celtic Christian Tradition. They usually have some bit or other that reminds me of how to be a kinder influence in the world. Today they posted something I have seen before, a quote by Henri Nouwen. It is a quote I appreciate and one I try to live by; this morning it struck me with a different thought, and I chose to share.
One of the most difficult things to sort out in today’s atmosphere is when to take on an issue like a hurricane and when to be the gentle breeze. Some would argue we have no more time for gentleness; too many people are being impacted by the public display of what can only be described as hatred, distrust, and intransigence against discussion of any kind that may lead to resolutions outside of a perceived world view. The voices may be many, or few, it is difficult to be certain, but they are certainly loud. One thing I am sure of, screaming into the hurricane does little to change its course.
I also find myself setting filter standards for almost anything I read or watch. Through the past many months, I have developed a kind of radar that tells me when it is not productive to engage someone on a topic, and when they may, possibly, at least listen to what I say. I’ve managed to keep several friends in social media that way, while in some cases I am forced to disengage for my own sense of peace. Sometimes, I type what I believe to be a perfect response – then delete it before it’s even posted. I like to pick what bonfires I start.
That brings me to this morning when this quote popped up in my newsfeed. The quandary of when to say what and how forcibly it should be made became clearer. The hard work to is stop talking past each other, to stop screaming in the wind when no one can hear or understand. The important part is the moment by moment effort to be a presence for the better. To forever seek the moment when you can be part of turning the tide of hatred, of division, of prejudice.
While writing this piece I ran across this clip by Nadia Bolz-Weber. She is a pastor in the House for All Sinners and Saints in Denver, Colorado. She felt called to be a shepherd to those who had none; to be a voice for those who didn’t fit anywhere else. Her approach to defining how we handle the evil in our life is something that I have experienced. Sometimes we have to step away or we become that which we detest the most. In that process, however, we dare not leave a vacuum. Nature abhors a vacuum. So, when we refuse to feed the fire, we must add something else to the mix – we must be what we want others to be. If we want a kinder, more inclusive, more socially conscious, society – then that is what we must be on a personal level, in all our interactions and in every way possible.
Push back against the tide, one deed, one thought, one word at a time.